Features
Choose Ranil and you choose a cycle of carnage and catastrophe
DR. DAYAN JAYATILLEKA
This may come as a surprise to you, but we’ve been here before. In August 1953, there was a two-day work stoppage and civil disobedience campaign by the island’s people, called by the left parties. Protest covered the South and the North. The LSSP and CP led, the Federal Party participated, and though the SLFP did not do so actively as a party, SWRD Bandaranaike chaired the massive kick-off rally at Galle Face Green. Women baked hoppers on railway tracks and stopped trains. Worker-militants used homemade hand-bombs for sabotage. The Police shot dead eight people. The Cabinet was evacuated onto an American ship. The country’s leader, the Prime Minister, resigned. The Hartal was the grandfather of the Aragalaya.
The political disaster came later, when the ruling UNP made a fateful choice. It decided against appointing as the leader of the country, a more progressive and socially sensitive person in keeping with the mass mood of the moment. The tragedy is that such choices were clearly available: CWW Kannagara, RG Senanayake, MD Banda, AE Goonesinghe.
WHEN LANKA’S FALL BEGAN
Instead, the UNP opted for the polar opposite type—a man who would take a tougher stand in the face of ‘the red rabble’ as the power-elite of the day saw them. That man was Sir John Kotelawala, ideologically the most rightwing personality in the island’s politics of that time and also the most socially arrogant representative of the ancien regime. His advisor was today’s Acting President, Ranil Wickremesinghe’s father, Esmond Wickremesinghe.
It is the choice of Sir John Kotelawala, his profile, rhetoric and policies that resulted in the 1956 landslide that swept away the UNP, and enthroned the policy of Sinhala Only in 24 hours. It caused the fall of Ceylon/Sri Lanka.
A drastically different and far more pragmatic political choice, which was readily available, would have resulted in a drastically different and far better outcome. In 1988 the beleaguered UNP government had learned from 1956: Ranjan Wijeratne and JR Jayewardene didn’t choose Lalith Athulathmudali or Gamini Dissanayake, they chose AE Goonesinghe’s protégé, Ranasinghe Premadasa whose discourse won over the mass base of the red revolution and saved democracy as well as the market economy.
Today, the colossal post-Hartal 1953 folly of the ruling party of the day is being repeated. Against the backdrop of the Aragalaya, Ranil Wickremesinghe is set to play the role of Sir John, with infinitely more disastrous consequences. The good news is that unlike in 1956 the blowback is unlikely to take the form of Sinhala Only chauvinism and will be a throwback to the inclusive radicalism of the August ’53 Hartal. The truly dreadful news for the critically ailing economy is that it will take the form of open, permanent rebellion, even Revolution.
That is, unless Parliament votes today to turf him out and wisely select one of the candidates who are socially sensitive and able to dialogue with the Aragalaya youth.
ZERO MANDATE
Today, Wednesday, July 20th 2022 decides the direction and destiny of our country and therefore of ourselves as individuals.
The least damaging and dangerous thing that could happen to Sri Lanka is for former Prime Minister and Acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe to lose today’s election in Parliament.
If he wins, the country will slide slowly or fast, into civil conflict and possibly civil war. Given our economic collapse, such conflict will also mean that the collapse is irreversible.
Why? The reasons are several-fold.
Firstly, Ceylon/Sri Lanka is the oldest democracy not only in Asia but in Asia-Africa. It has exercised universal adult suffrage sine 1931, a mere four years after the UK. It has always had popularly elected leaders.
Even when Prime Minister DB Wijetunga succeeded President Premadasa after the latter’s assassination, though he had not been elected to the post, he had been elected to Parliament at the two previous Parliamentary elections, in 1989 and 1977. In 1989 he had polled the highest number of preference votes in the Kandy district.
Ranil Wickremesinghe has no such legitimacy to lead the country even in this unusual situation, less intense though similar to the succession in 1993. He was not elected to Parliament at the last election. The party he led, the UNP was wiped out at the ballot box. He is in Parliament as the sole MP of his party on the national list, though he lost his home district and city by a huge margin.
If he is elected by the Parliament to be the executive President, he will be the first ever leader we have had since Independence who has zero mandate from the people.
Given that ours is a democratic republic, such a scenario will be at variance with the very basis of the Constitution, which is the sovereignty of the people as exercised through universal suffrage i.e., the vote.
LEGALITY ISN’T LEGITIMACY
When President JR JayEwardene decided to opt for a referendum in December 1982 instead of the parliamentary election scheduled for early 1983, my father, Mervyn de Silva interviewed him for the Lanka Guardian. The interview was also published in The Island (either its daily or Sunday edition). One line in that interview was often quoted at that time and proved prophetic.
President Jayewardene explained that the decision was entirely consistent with the law. Mervyn de Silva had a typically swift comeback: “it is legal, but is it legitimate?”
In his journal of which he was the founder Editor-Publisher, the Lanka Guardian, and his Kautilya column in The Island, Mervyn kept hammering away at the dangers of a decision that was legal but not legitimate; that of the two, broadly perceived legitimacy is more important than narrow legality, and that without legitimacy the decision would have the direst consequences.
He was proved prophetic within months when the July 1983 riots erupted with the added ferocity of suppressed social anger that would have been released had a parliamentary election been help on schedule in early 1983. The tragedy didn’t stop there. There were terrible civil wars in North and South, and an external intervention. In short, a bloodbath.
If Ranil Wickremesinghe is elected by parliamentary vote, that outcome will lack legitimacy. While the illegitimacy of the referendum of December 1982 plunged the nation into decades of civil war, that decision was taken by a President who had the legitimacy of being elected by a majority of the people in October 1982. And yet we were plunged for 30 years into a bloodbath.
BLOODBATH
Ranil Wickremesinghe doesn’t have a shred of the legitimacy that JR Jayewardene had, though the Referendum did not. Therefore, the result is predictable and inescapable: civil war, revolution and counter-revolution. Since he doesn’t have legitimacy and has no Ranasinghe Premadasa as dissenting backup as did JRJ, he will take the democratic and market system with him when he goes, which he will. There will be chaos and anarchy.
If selected by Parliament the unelected Ranil Wickremesinghe will be an illegitimate ruler, infinitely less legitimate than Gotabaya Rajapaksa originally was. Gotabaya became illegitimate because he tore up the Social Contract, initially by the ruination of peasant agriculture through his arbitrary nationwide ban on the import of fertilizer, pesticide and weedicide. By contrast Ranil Wickremesinghe will have zero legitimacy starting out the gate. The sovereign people never signed a Social Contract with him, which is what happens at an election.
Ranil’s track record, his recent rhetoric about “fascists” and his setting up of a committee of Armed Forces chiefs and the IGP to take “independent” decisions and measures, already signal the emergence of what is termed in Latin America, a ‘civilian-military junta’ or a ‘State of National Security’.
An Aragalaya which threw out a man who was elected by 6.9 million votes but had violated his Social Contract will resist regimentation by an unelected man who has no popular mandate and no legitimacy but wields the full panoply of state power.
PERMAMENT REBELLION
In a recent ‘tough guy’ speech, Ranil Wickremesinghe drew a distinction between “Aragalakaruwo” (‘strugglers’, those in the Struggle) and “Karalikaruwo” (rebels).
It is possible that he was referring to the burning of his house, an utterly reprehensible, criminal deed which should not go unpunished. He should have called the perpetrators “aparaadakaruwo” (criminals). I can understand his use of the term “fascist” if occasioned by the burning of his library, because book burning is indeed a hallmark of fascist behaviour. However, he should not have repeated the fascist tag in a far more considered and formal speech, which he did.
Ranil Wickremesinghe doesn’t understand that what is illegitimate is not “karalikaruwo” but “thrasthawaadiyo” i.e., terrorists, strictly defined as those who wittingly target innocent, unarmed non-combatants with lethal force (e.g., the LTTE and the JVP of the 2nd insurrection).
He seems to forget that “karalla”—rebellion—is a term of respect and affection depending on who by and who against. The two major uprisings against British colonialism are referred to as the “karalla/karali” (Rebellion/Rebellions) of 1818 and 1848. Puran Appu was a paradigmatic “Karalikaruwa” (rebel). The term has far more legitimacy and romantic historical resonance than Ranil Wickremesinghe will ever have.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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