Features
Is cascading collapse unstoppable?
by Kumar David
The theory that Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) was brought in as PM to save the skin of the Rajapaksa Clan is very plausible. Mahinda was driven out when his attempted May 9 coup was foiled by public revolt, Basil reduced to scavenging and other clan members forced to hightail it from Cabinet. These defeats of the regime and Ranil’s appointment did indeed defuse pressure on the regime and the intensity of the protests on Galle Face and elsewhere quietened.
A much-weakened Gotabaya clung on to power, a shadow of himself, but retaining his military coterie and the incompetent, corrupt scoundrels he brought with him from California and injected into sinecures. Therefore, the thesis worked for a moment; but events have a logic and dynamic of their own, reality evolves and matters do not move as projected in well-laid plans. This is why political wakefulness and intelligence are indispensable; only sterile analysts seek to substitute the retelling of what happened in Russia in 1917 or Libya in recent times, and so on, for a grasp of the movement of events, for thinking on one’s feet and alertness to unravelling reality
In the four weeks since RW’s appointment the dynamics have indeed changed visibly and the relationship between RW and Gota evolved. On the whole changes during the month have moved to strengthen RW’s hand. Most significant is that RW has visibly asserted control of the Administration and Gota taken a back seat. RW is clearly and visibly in charge of negotiations with the IMF and foreign powers (for whatever they may be worth), Gota has conceded that he is finished as a President and has declared his intention not the run again.
And of course, on the constitutional side the 21st Amendment cleared by the Cabinet and sent to the Legal Draftsman in anticipation of tabling in Parliament transfers a considerable amount of power out of the Presidency and into the hands of Parliament. Thereafter there will be shift of power away of the Presidency; Parliament and PM will be the gainers. (This is not endorsement of 21A, the big lacuna is that the Executive Presidency is not abolished). Gotabaya is yesterday’s news; I am reluctant to devote any more space in today’s column to that person whose tenure was littered with imbecilic decisions.
The key players in the next four weeks in which it will become clear whether the immediate crisis leads to cascading collapse, which I fear may see chaos and anarchy follow in its wake, are RW and a disparate array of forces in the government parliamentary group, mainly the faction-ridden SLPP. If the RW government is pulled down, then there are in theory only two credible alternatives, chaos or an immediate general election. I am of the view, and I may be wrong, to appoint another person as PM will lead to an explosion of anger (not because the electorate loves RW but because it will be another game of dirty musical-chairs) and because it will rip-up the applecart of negotiations with the IMF and international lenders. I am afraid whether you love or hate RW you are stuck with him for the moment, at least till the prevailing extreme emergency has subsided. As I have said many times in this column the instant litmus test is the fuel crisis; shortages and food prices will take longer to deal with though hunger is biting many people very hard. Fuel queues are stark, visible and a flashpoint of anger; the fuel crisis is an in-you-face affront, it is a 24-hour reminder of a Ranil failure.
The next few weeks can swing in many directions. Every rumour turns false and sour. Petrol prices have been predicted to “go up tomorrow by Rs 50 to 70” for the last week. That the fateful tomorrow will dawn no one doubts, but why all the drama? Tankers bearing millions of metric tons of life giving hydrocarbons are, just outside, almost berthed or turned away because Lanka is bankrupt of dollars. This muddled status does not only mark the state of our finances, it is also a reflection of political uncertainty. Ranil, the SJP and government parliamentarians pull in different directions, the JVP-NPP issues strident protests but it’s a lot of hot-air, and the TNA could do better. Apart from this messy political side, the organs of state are in a muddled condition. The police and the military don’t know whether they are coming or going and in what direction to point. Instead of playing cheap political games for advantages of the moment it should take a firm and clear stand along these lines.
The RW government must remain in office for a short while more to complete bailout negotiations with the IMF et al. (What else? Are we going to form an Anura Kumara or Sajith government to continue the negotiations; do they know how even to approach the issues?) No one can guarantee whether ongoing negotiations will prove fruitful; I certainly will not offer odds on the outcome. But at this moment there is nothing else to do. You don’t shoot the pilot in mid-air whether he lost his parliamentary seat, is a political rightist, or whether he farts in public.
It is necessary to hold elections within a few months. It is not necessary to accept an RW led government beyond the ‘emergency phase’ noted in the previous bullet point. There is no need to lend support to a short- or medium-term economic programme that RW, Sajith or Rajapaksa-rump led political firmament may have up its sleeve. Once the emergency phase is passed (“Thank you Ranil”) let there be a new government with a fresh mandate from the people. Will the electorate muck it up again? Very likely, but at least it will be foist once again by its own toenails. The people of Sri Lanka are reaping what they have sowed for over seven decades; the Rajapaksas and such vermin were only the topping on the cake, the popularly acclaimed faeces decorating the nation.
Sri Lanka, both by long experience and psychologically is absolutely unsuitable for anything like a one-party system as in some socialistic inclined countries. It must be made plain clear and explicit that Lanka will remain democratic and governments will be chosen and kicked by the exercise of the franchise of the people.
The repeal of the executive presidential system, root and branch must be high on the agenda; this may have already been done in the years in between. An appropriate mixed electoral system should be introduced but I have no particular structure in mind.
There must be a firm commitment to the devolution of powers and governance to the people in the North and East and a renunciation of all discriminatory measures against the Ceylon Tamil, Muslim, Upcountry Tamil and Catholic communities. Sinhala-Buddhist majoritarian chauvinism must the programmatically denounced.
It seems to me that the next election if held within a few months will be won by liberal bourgeois outfit, Sajith or a Ranil-Sajith combo. Though I make no bones about my left-socialist proclivities I am quite reconciled to the thought that the people will neither understand nor vote such an option to power in the forthcoming elections. That’s fine, actually that’s better because the left parties have neither the broad knowledge-bases nor the administrative experiences needed to run a modern (Twenty-first Century) government. The delay is a blessing in disguise.
The forthcoming (by which I mean within say six months) elections will provide the left to fully air and debate in public its alternative economic programme; an opportunity it should welcome. If I had my way the more important differences with a right-wing or centre-right programmes will (should) be (a) a stronger directive role of government – the word is dirigisme – in medium and longer range economic policy; (b) a sympathetic orientation to the needs of the have-not classes; (c) directed emphasis on technology-science, education and English language skills for young people; (d) immediate release of all political prisoners and repeal of the PTA and many such unsavoury laws and administrative fiats.
Finally, matters such as respect for the law, non-interference with the judiciary and many similar matters the left shares with decent liberal democratic value systems.
This is rather more than necessary I have written on ideas for a draft left programme for an election in the near future; a semi-final run for a left government before the final encounter (the timing will depend on how long the next bourgeoise democratic elected government will function). The intervening period is a useful training ground for honing skills, sharpening minds and building contacts.
Back to my starting point: Will cascading collapse become catastrophic? No options are off the table. The urgent need is to shorten the fuel queues and to complete negotiations with the IMF and other agencies. This may buy a few further months to import food. Growing vegetables in your front yard is not going to fill anyone’s stomach with rice, dhal and greens in one or two months. If Lanka can get through the next one month on life support and the next few months in intensive care, systemic collapse and anarchy may be averted.
I would like give readers just one example about how much belt-tightening has been inflicted on this country in such a short period. The price of 92 octane petrol has already been raised (or will soon be raised) to about Rs 500 a litre. Now this corresponds to nearly US $5.25 per US gallon which is about the highest pump price that motorists pay in California. (One US gallon = 3.79 litres, and I have assumed one US dollar equivalent to LKR 360). The prices of diesel and cooking-gas too are not much out of alignment with American prices. Fuel prices dominate all prices. Estimates of price inflation of consumer goods vary by the day but 100% year on year is not on the low side. Wages have not risen one jot in months and years. Therefore, it is no longer possible to say that Sri Lankan consumers and the poor in this country are the recipients of large unearned handouts. A big part of the IMF’s pound of flesh has been paid by the crisis itself.
I am going to leave it at that for today. Anything one says at one moment is disproved the next.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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