Features
Ranil: A SWOT Appraisal
by Kumar David
Likewise Prime Minister RW is not a slave to the past, nor is he a free agent. What he can do is restrained by economic and political inheritances. By far the weightiest are economic conditions, the most important of these stretch back 70 years. But there is also a different genre of follies – abuse of power, mismanagement and plunder – pertaining mainly to the Mahinda and Gotabaya presidencies. The predicament now is that we as a nation are consuming more than we produce and have for decades survived on borrowed money and foreign debt. I say this not as moral sentiment but plain unadorned fact. To rescue the nation from this wretched economic inheritance is above the capacity and beyond the remit of RW’s Interim Administration (IA) – a weakness, a “W”. Nevertheless there are things that can be done within the parameters of a ‘merely’ interim administration. (SWOT = Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)
Unexpectedly, consumption has been slashed by steep inflation embodying increases in fuel and food prices. Future consumption too has been hacked by the loss in value, if measured in dollar terms, of private savings in funds, trusts, equities and banks, the future value of fixed pension payments, and probably by a decline in property and fixed asset values when measured in dollars. VAT has been increased and taxes on the affluent will rise for sure. LKR has fallen to less than 40% in value measured in gold in the last three years. Some losses will be recouped by the salaried classes (workers) by trade union action, and mass agitation will force future governments to provide a degree of relief; but real wages have fallen (this is one item in “labour market restructuring”, the other item easy-firing, won’t be so easy to do). The non-salaried classes (rural folk, urban and semi-urban petty bourgeoisie) are up the gum tree. The four day working week amounts to a big cut in government jobs since recruitment will soon fall. Overall, consumption has been lowered for a long time to come. Hence one of the IMF’s pound-of-flesh demands has come to pass without help from RW.
RW in a perverse sense is a lucky fellow; the crisis has played into his hands by getting some “economic restructuring” done; public consumption has been slashed and RW spared the opprobrium of having to do it. This can perhaps be counted as an “S” or strength. To what extent it will translate to a smaller deficit in the primary fiscal-deficit (revenue minus expenditure, leaving aside debt servicing) cannot yet be figured out but there will be a degree of relaxation in the deficit. Will RW be able to sell this scenario to the public? That will depend on the answers to other questions I discuss anon.
There is the second crisis in the economic domain; deficits in the trade account and in balance of payments. So much has been written on the nitty-gritty details that no explication is needed here. The bottom line is that to survive we have to import less, export more and to export more we have to make more. And we have to make things more efficiently (high-browed economists call it total factor productivity, but such terms are not for yokels like you and me). This is a huge challenge beyond the remit of RW’s IA. Whatever medium-term programme, good or bad, he attempts will be challenged, fairly or unfairly, as having no electoral mandate.
Gota (GR) had a mandate which he mucked-up in incredible style, the devil himself couldn’t have done worse, but this is no argument for RW to govern long-term without a mandate. If 21A is pushed through without excessive emasculation, if RW and his IA, despite a third of his Cabinet being dunces and another third crooks, gets some relief from shortages, and given that Sajith and his SJB have their tails tucked deep between their legs, a liberal-democratic alliance led by RW (Sajith has lost his shine) has a moderate chance at an election in the absence of anything else. The Left has to await its time and Rajapaksa-side MPs will hightail it to Timbuctoo before they are hanged from post-election lampposts. This has to be counted as an “O” for opportunity, but not as a Strength since uncertainties are large and many.
The biggest “O” or opportunity that RW has is if he can sweet-talk the IMF, World Bank (can he get that fossilised old fool GL to shut up?), India and even China to be ever more generous. It seems this is happening, but slowly. We are told that the IMF wanted RW appointed because he could sweet-talk this side and that. Of the twin challenges, shortages and prices, it is not possible for RW do much about prices for the reasons stated in my second paragraph, but if he can kiss feet, lick bums and ease shortage of fuel, medicines and parripu, even at a price, for say three months, the economy may get past imminent shipwreck. Overcoming gridlock on shortages, especially fuel (petrol, diesel and cooking-gas) is RW’s best short-term bet, but petrol queues are still long and sullen
The threat “T” to a liberal-democratic option is political. SJB leaders are immature in judgment and Sajith, Ranjith Madum’b, Eran, Harsha and Fonny cannot think out of personalised (RW vs. Sajith) sectarian boxes. They are unable to reason around a bigger liberal-democratic agenda; their minds need to ripen beyond personalities since the pettiness of these leaders is a threat to their class. (Champika has fled to seclusion and self-immolation). As a leftist I should be happy you may say. Well yes and no; it exposes how effete that class is, but I don’t want its bungling to land us all in chaos. An analogy: I am an opponent of neo-imperialist USA-hooked NATO and abhor brutal Orthodox Christian non-Marxist Putin, but I don’t want their mutual bungling to precipitate hunger, prolong dependence on environmentally dirty energy and aggravate fears of nuclear conflict. Macron is right, we have live with these flesh-eaters for now.
These threats could precipitate the fall of RW’s IA. There is disarray in state and government. There is confusion and conflict between different branches of state as evidenced by the Aeroflot affair, the inability of the CID to “locate” Johnston Fernando for ages and much more. All factions of government are pulling in different directions and Mahinda is stirring the pot. Holy Mackerel! An oligarch-bookie with a controversial past is now Investment Minister; whose plant, MR’s or GR’s, and for what purpose? It is not certain whether the Central Bank and the Finance Minister-PM are on the same page; pity because the new Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe, I am told, is an able person. The President has morphed into an idle nobody, sitting on his haunches while the practical tasks of governance devolve on this most unlikely of prime ministers. The immediate threat to RW’s premiership therefore comes from political disarray in governance. Meanwhile it is creditable that he is attempting to build bridges to Aragalaya, but what if all goes belly-up? Basil and the military – unlikely. An explosion in the country at large – possible. Draft-21A permits dissolution of parliament two and a half years after its election; if adopted the current parliament can be dissolved forthwith and fresh elections called. I can think of nothing better.
This succinctly sums it all; what more can verbal diarrhoea elucidate? You will find many good-reads, even if a bit long, to entertain, exasperate and to leak who-done-it info, which faction, which knave and tit-bits. A longish but entertaining one is Austin Fernando’s “The senseless killing of 19A by 21A” in Colombo Telegraph, 6 June. Another useful summary of why 21A as drafted is not good enough (allows too much power to remain in the hands of the president) is Jehan Perera’s “Real Change not only Constitutional Fixing” in Island and CT on 7th/6th June. Bedlam and muddling in the nation’s higher places leaves one more confused than enlightened. Do any MPs and Ministers matter? No, they will only be dredged up for mockery as they fade into of collective oblivion.
I will digress for a paragraph to deplore the quality of political “analyses” currently offered by nearly all commentators. Since RW’s appointment it’s the same hackneyed theme, without pause, to measure trends, gauge conflicts and explore dynamics. The universal storyline is “GR made RW prime minister to stooge for him, forestall prosecution and cover up the rackets of the (Raja)Paksas. Now RW is dutifully fulfilling his assignment”. Commentators who report day-before-yesterday’s news as today’s analysis cannot see an inch ahead of their noses! Dialectics has never been the strong point of media ‘analysts’. The dynamic right now is utterly different; it is superficial collaboration but mostly rivalry between GR and RW and it seems RW is scoring more points. Basil has been driven out, in horse-trading over 21A RW is to get more powers, GR concedes he is a sloppy fail-case and declares as he limps out that he will not run again. And the knock-out blow is this: the IMF, India and global finance-capital have made it clear they prefer RW.
Let me sum up and conclude with the usual simple formula: Gota Go; Improve on 21A; Dissolve parliament; Hold elections soon; Abolish the executive presidency. Surely an adequate short-term wish-list for now and all but the final item are short-term doable. My economic programme? Oh come on, be patient, some other time.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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