Features
Data-driven decision-making for economic prosperity and good governance – II
By Dr. Ranga Prabodanie
(The first part of this article appeared yesterday (05)
The previous part of this article series explained how the great insurgence of digital data has revolutionized the institutional decision-making process in both business and governance. This latter part will look at the Sri Lankan context: Where we are currently and the way forward to a data-driven decision-making culture. Let’s first have a glance at how decisions are made in data-intensive public services.
Education
Schools, universities and vocational training institutions, throughout the country, collect, record and report data on admissions, enrolment, completion, drop-outs, results, graduations and expenditure for various programmes, courses and subjects. The Examinations Department does have digital records of GCE O/L and A/L results. However, the data is used only for the preparation of annual statistical reports, rather than for identifying and resolving problems. Data-driven decision -making extends well beyond preparation of reports. To make informed decisions on new subject streams, curriculum revision, subject promotion, funding and resource allocation, education data should be explored for trends and associations which raise concerns. To ensure equity in resource allocation, inputs and outputs, produced by education institutions, should be compared using appropriate analytical methods. Analysis of data from industry and other stakeholders is also important to identify the skills in demand and academic disciplines with greater potential for entrepreneurship, employment and scientific innovation.
Health
Public health records which include data on patients hospitalisations, symptoms, diagnosis, treatments, progress and side-effects, encompass valuable insights on emerging diseases, their causes, case rates, recovery rates, death rates, hospital congestion, bed occupation, treatment costs, waiting times, medication efficacies and vulnerable groups which could provide directions for healthcare management and budgeting. There is an urgent need for health records to be digitised and analysed to glean emerging trends, patterns and associations. Though some progress has been made in healthcare analytics, for example in understanding the drivers of Dengue outbreaks, the patterns, trends and socioeconomic implications of most widespread diseases are poorly understood.
Lack of competence in health data analytics was evident in the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. There were instances where even the number of deaths resulting from COVID-19 were misreported and revised. We have seen various professionals, making claims, in the media, such as “next two weeks are critical”, “the country should be closed for three weeks” and “people are dying at home because they avoid going to hospitals”, but what we never hear is, based on what data, over which time period, analysed using which methods, such insights were derived. Sri Lanka has a well-educated population capable of differentiating facts supported by data from mere human perceptions, and perhaps, that is why they do not listen to such claims.
If you listen to the BBC news, you would often hear them reporting the status of COVID-19 in the UK directly citing the source as “according to ONS (Office for National Statistics) estimates”. Then they may present the information with relevant comparisons as, for example, “COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in England and Wales in September 2021, accounting for 6.6 percent of registered deaths in England and 8.5 percent of deaths in Wales. The two leading causes of death in both countries were ….” In Sri Lanka, we rarely hear such alarming comparisons,based on real data, but poorly supported individual projections, based on intuition. If data-driven analytical outcomes were shared with the public, people would be compelled to listen. Given the rising healthcare costs and economic depression, it is high time to invest in professional health data analytics to understand the trends and associations, to establish the right priorities, and to inform policies, accordingly.
Agriculture
Agriculture is another sector in which data driven decision-making can make a revolutionary change. Some recent developments in the country, including alleged hoarding of rice, milk and sugar to create artificial shortages and to increase prices, are related to lack of reliable data on agricultural production and imports. To avoid such malpractices, particularly in times of crisis, the government authorities have to keep track of data and continuously update and analyse the data to understand the drivers of market demand and supply. Since the government provides fertiliser subsidies, the agricultural authorities should have data on the acres of food crops to be harvested each season. If there are barriers to obtain reliable data, there is technology to help. A research group in Stanford University has developed a scalable yield mapper which can predict crop yield at the field scale based on satellite data. The system has been tested not only in the US but also in Africa and India. Development or acquisition of such technologies would help authorities to monitor the production and supply of food crops and make informed decisions on subsidies and imports.
The government decision to ban agricultural chemicals came under huge criticism as a poorly informed decision. Given the global appeal for organic food, the ban on agrochemicals can have favourable impacts on our economy and wellbeing. It could have secured a competitive advantage for Sri Lankan food products in the global market. Unfortunately, the decision came as a surprise, without supporting facts derived from real data. The evidence on the associations, if any, between water pollution and agrochemicals, chronic kidney disease and agrochemicals, food prices and agrochemical imports, organic fertiliser and agricultural output, and other relevant and measurable factors, should have been elaborated together with predicted outcomes of the decision, both positive and negative. Decisions that are apparently not supported by facts indicate lack of transparency and accountability, a basic principle of good governance. Lack of data-based reasoning can create chaos irrespective of whether a decision is right or wrong.
Public safety
Continued monitoring of crime data is essential for ensuring public safety. Crime data analysis can reveal spatial and temporal patterns of crime, trends, hot spots, vulnerable groups and delinquents. Such insights can inform resource allocation for crime reduction and prevention. The general public is constantly bombarded, by the media, with fresh crime data, such as “a suspect possessing X grams of ICE was arrested in Y”, which now has no significance to the general public. Instead, if the media reports crime trends as, for example, “X percent of the suspects arrested with illegal drugs in 2020 were adolescents in the Y-Z age group…”, it would immediately trigger the attention of parents, schools and other stakeholders. The former is raw data which the analyst has to work with and the average citizen has little to do with, while the latter is one of the insights derived from data which should inform decision making and policy response and thus matters to everyone.
Conclusion
The previous sections of this article pointed out only a few areas of business, public service and governance which can be enhanced via data-driven decision -making. There are several other sectors, such as investment, energy, transport and conservation where data-driven decision making can make a shift towards sustainable development and better living. As a viable starting point, available public service data can be digitized and made available for analysis by researchers and relevant experts. Countries like the UK, the US and Australia have made health, crime and other data available on the public domain, allowing the researchers to explore the data and inform the government. However, a strong policy framework is needed to support, promote and facilitate data-driven decision-making in all those sectors.
Barriers should be expected, and initially, it would be more difficult to change attitudes than to set-up the basic infrastructure. The biggest barriers could be institutional bureaucracy, political influences, special interest groups and disruptive intentions motivated by the fear of losing power, status, and prerogatives. Strong leadership with a sound understanding of the need for evidence-based decision making is essential. Leaders have to understand that the status reported by officers and various parties with vested interests do not always reflect the reality on the ground and hence decisions made on such advice can lead to disasters. Real data is the only dependable and reliable source of ground reality which should guide policy.
The Sri Lankan government has already taken the initial steps to digitize public service data by establishing the Information and Communication Technology Agency (ICTA), committed to implementing digital-governance in Sri Lanka using ICT to access, exchange, and utilize information efficiently. In collaboration with ICTA, some government institutions have taken progressive steps towards data-driven decision making. The Department of Immigrations and Emigration, the Department of Motor Traffic and the Election Commission of Sri Lanka have already introduced online services which autonomously collect and store data in easily analysable formats. Still we have to develop a policy framework and a culture which supports regular analyses of collected data to generate insights and integrate them into the decision-making process.
Gone were the days when institutional decision making was an exercise of sheer authority; today it’s a complex process of collecting, analysing and generating insights from data. People no longer accept mere predictions without well elaborated facts and evidence, nor do they hesitate to challenge poorly informed decisions made on sheer intuition or authority. The data revolution is on-board, demanding all policies, regulations, restrictions, grants, expenses, and all kinds of decisions to be justified by facts and science. Everyone in business, governance and public service will have to change their attitudes and come to terms with the new decision-making culture driven by data and insights.
(The writer is a Senior Lecturer at Wayamba University, Sri Lanka. However, the views and opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not reflect the policy or position of any institution.)
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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