Features
Will a Trump Re-election Pose a Global Threat?
by Kumar David
Nearly 60 percent of US Republicans support Donald Trump and about 30 percent favour Ron DeSantis; only about 10 percent would like to see another candidate, including Vice President Mike Pence nominated by their party for the November 2024 presidential election. The choice is skewed on the Democratic side as well with about 50% of Democrats favouring Biden, 30% wanting him to step aside for reasons of age.
Others in the running are Elizabeth Warren, the also aged Bernie Sanders. Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris trail behind. These are still early days and preferences, especially on the Democratic side, are likely to change. But the Democrats are not my topic today. Since the US is and will remain the premier global power for a few decades I decided that it would be useful to keep my readers dated on recent events in America and have made use of a short visit to draft this piece.
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is largely a Trump creation (Obama’s nominees were repeatedly blocked by Republican majorities in the US Senate). It is the most reactionary in decades and certainly the most bigoted in my lifetime. Its recent decisions, give a whiff of what it will do in the next period and a presumptive Trump presidency may have a significant impact on international affairs and SCOTUS will be a collaborator or fixer in the context of America’s failing international role I need to devote a few paragraphs to a brief discussion two topics – (i) the recent decisions of this blinkered SCOTUS and (ii) gridlock in the US global financial and political agenda where Trump may lean on SCOTUS to push forward his plans.
In a stunning blow to women’s reproductive rights SCOTUS reversed Roe vs Wade, landmark bipartisan legislation which has had stood since 1976. The Court struck down several Texas laws which had criminalised abortion and declared that they imposed an undue burden on a woman’s right to abortion. The Roe vs Wade victory was a cornerstone of US feminism; the decision made in June 2022 overturning it is egging women’s movements worldwide into action.
In June 2023 the Court took another reactionary turn when it prohibited affirmative action in admission to American universities. Affirmative action refers to policies aimed at increasing educational opportunities for people who are under-represented in various areas of society and focuses on demographics with historically low representation. The Court quite happily allowed the disproportionally large number of blacks in the US armed forces to continue. This bigoted Court opined that Blacks, Browns and the underprivileged are eligible to die for the defence of US Imperialism but not to be educated!
In a one-two-punch against Blacks, Browns and underprivileged communities this Court also struck down bipartisan measures to ensure affirmative action in government contract awards, employment and enrolment in education endorsed or enacted in bipartisan efforts over the last seventy years. Biden correctly described this as an “abnormal” court. These rulings have defined Biden’s campaign issues for the 2024 presidential polls and one can already see the Democrats girding their loins and polishing their canons for the campaign.
SCOTUS appointment is for life and an incumbent can depart from office by retirement, impeachment or keeping an appointment with the Almighty. The only Justice ever to be impeached was Samuel Chase in 1805. The House of Representatives impeached him; however, he was acquitted by the Senate. It is necessary therefore to say a few words about the composition of this court.
The Chief Justice John Roberts inspires no confidence in the hearts of racial minorities, women or liberals. Clarence Thomas, would if he were on any Sri Lankan court have been impeached for accepting handsome gifts from business organisations. Brett Kavanaugh, a Bush protégé in his climb up the ladder and a Trump appointee to SCOTUS is a religious immoderate. Interestingly six of the nine justices (both reactionaries John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Kavanaugh and Samuel Alito and progressive minded Sonia Sotomayor) are Catholics.
The progressive minority on SCOTUS led by Sotomayor includes Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, all women. The Court is dominated by WASPs but many white Anglo Saxon Protestants abhor Trump and count him as crude, dishonest and a pervert. This summary I think is enough to give my readers a thumb-nail sketch of the current situation on SCOTUS.
An allied matter is that SCOTUS is the final authority in the interpretation of the Constitution and amending it is virtually impossible since the process involves very complex bargaining with the States, which means it must be a bipartisan process. This was the case to a large degree with the historic 13th Amendment of 1865 which abolished slavery, the 19th Amendment of 1920 giving women the vote and the 22nd Amendment of 1951 which imposed a two-term limit on the Presidency.
The Trump camp understands that with 40 million students losing out in some way by the Court’s decision to eliminate student financial support, women fired up by the abolition of the right to abortion and blacks, browns and underprivileged communities infuriated by the abolition of affirmative action, the stage is set for a no holds barred show-down in the 2024 election campaign. How this will pan out is anybody’s guess. My guess is that it will be to Trump’s disadvantage and therefore Republicans will try to defuse it.
Let me move on to the threats posed by a second Trump presidency in the international arena. I will comment on three aspects, financial challenges to global dollar supremacy, Israel and strategic-nuclear concerns in the Middle East and the big one, China. There are numerous subordinate issues attached to each but were I to deal with everything I would have to write a book!
The dollar has been king, the medium of global financial transactions, the medium in which most trade transactions are concluded and the currency in which most savings, private, corporate and government are held. This was the story since Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944. (Bretton Woods is a sleepy little town in New Hampshire, USA). The Bretton Woods deal was hugely fortified by the Petrodollar deal which Richard Nixon constructed with Saudi Arabia in 1973, the system was a deal between the US and Saudi Arabia whereby they agreed to price and trade oil in US dollars.
In exchange the US promised the Saudis military protection against all threats. Hence any country that purchased oil from Saudi Arabia would have to use dollars; soon it became the practice for the entire global oil trade; transgressors would incur American opprobrium. This arrangement has been challenged only in the last few years by Sino-Russian gas and oil transactions and India’s large oil purchases in defiance of American pressure. Now even Saudi Arabia is willing to enter into oil sales outside the Petrodollar ambit. There is nothing that a putative Trump presidency can do about any of this.
The dollar remains to world’s reserve currency in that it is the medium of payment for most international trade and most private, corporate and governmental bonds are held in dollars. Global payments systems such as SWIFT are still relatively unchallenged. Donald Trump and his advisors are not sophisticated enough to interfere with any of this.
The Eurozone id growing and the Chinese are attempting to cobble together a Yuan based global international system but this is far from adequate as yet. One can safely conclude that despite China becoming the world’s largest economy within two decades (it already is in PPP terms) the US dollar will continue to remain the primary financial medium for a another decade or two.
Therefore it is my view that it is in the strategic-military domain that the idiosyncratic Trump is a threat to global order. Surely his generals will veto any foolish actions in the Taiwan arena and even the Indian Ocean, but it is the arrogance of New Mandarin Overlords in Beijing that is provocative. Beijing has enunciated a Nine-Dash line of Chinese suzerainty in the South China Sea that reaches right up the rectal orifice of smaller littoral states – Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Vietnam and Taiwan (which to China) is a province of the PRC. A flare-up in the region is what Trump idiosyncrasy could provoke.
More serious are the strategic concerns in the Middle East. Trump may blindly support Israel and its rape of Palestine. Tensions between the extreme right-wing and others in Israel society is mounting and a two-state solution is the last thing on Israel’s, the US or Western agendas. The outlook is bleak; ideal breeding ground for clueless Trump’s confused impulses.
Mind you I strongly support Iran’s ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons. It is utterly unacceptable that Israel is the only nuclear power in the region. A strategic balance is unconditionally essential. Trump’s blunder in withdrawing from the agreement with Iran has expedited its progress in this direction. Good! Maybe he will blunder creatively again.
The final matter which I need to explore is the Thucydides Trap that yawns in front of America as it confronts China; the directive role of the state, Deng Xiaoping’s thinking and the essential role of the invisible hand of markets in establishing economic efficiency. But that’s too much for me today.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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