Features
The Democrats : CANDIDATES FOR THE US PRESIDENCY IN 2024 PART 2
by Vijaya Chandrasoma
As a postscript to last week’s essay about potential Republican candidates for the 2024 presidency, many others, including Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, Senator Tim Scott, the only Republican African-American in the US Senate and former Vice President Mike Pence have thrown their hats in the ring. Hopefully, this portents a loosening of the grip Trump and the extreme MAGA right of the Republican Party have been wielding over the years. Especially because they are trying to take the country in a direction most Americans repudiate, where they dictate what we read, whom we love and our sexual identity, whom we can worship.
Also, their intransigent opposition to a significant response to the threat of climate change; their refusal to enact effective legislation to alleviate the epidemic of gun violence; their interference in women’s reproductive freedom; and the continuing sexual, income and wealth inequality. All hot button issues which demand action by a majority of Americans, they will almost certainly seal their defeat in 2024. After which the Republican Party finally will wake up in the 21st century, with monstrous memories of the nightmare that constituted the Trump years.
The announced and likely candidates for the 2024 Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidency are:
President Joe Biden (80 years)
President Biden has announced his decision to run for re-election in 2026, stressing that his decision was based on his accomplishments in the first two years of his presidency. These bi-partisan legislative accomplishments are substantial, and include the American Rescue Plan, which gave financial assistance to those affected by Covid, a long-overdue $1.1 trillion infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act, landmark legislation aimed at curbing inflation, lowering the deficit by reducing prescription drug and other prices, while making a significant response to the climate crisis. The economy under Biden has added a record 12.6 million jobs as at April 2023, exceeding the pre-pandemic totals by 3.2 million jobs. Biden passed the first, though minimal and largely impotent gun regulations in 30 years; too little too late, nevertheless a welcome start. He also appointed Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first African-American woman, to the Supreme Court.
Globally, Biden has rallied a coalition of over 40 nations behind Ukraine in response to Russia’s invasion. An act of illegal aggression generally recognized as not only a threat to the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, but an attempt by President Putin to dismantle NATO and achieve his dream of restoring the glory days of the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
While Biden’s policies have been generally popular, he has failed to get the credit he deserves, mainly because of his handling of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. His decision to withdraw did succeed in finally ending America’s longest war, though at substantial cost because of a lack of a well-planned exit strategy. Republicans also criticize his handling of the immigration crisis at the southern border, inflation and the economy.
His Achilles heel remains his age. He will be 82 in November 2026 and 86 at the end of his second term. He is dogged by low approval ratings, in spite of his stellar legislative performance, because of concerns about his advanced age. His wisest course of action would be to continue with his impressive presidential performance, and retire with great honor and fanfare in 2024. The only way the Democrats can lose the most vitally important election in the history of the USA would be to field Biden as its candidate.
Although Biden’s approval is running in the low 40s, Democrats will vote for him if he is the nominee. If the Republicans are equally stupid and field Trump as their nominee, then Biden will win by a large margin, again. Trump’s political career is on the wane, and his prison career may have begun by November 24.
Biden’s chances against a moderate Republican candidate will however not be as rosy, especially if that rival is a fresh, younger face, skeptical of radical right conspiracy theories currently popular with Trump and his MAGA cult.
The raising of the debt ceiling has always been a formality, and has never been denied. It simply authorizes the settlement of payments which have already been spent. 25% of the current debt represents the expenditure on Trump’s tax cuts in 2017, designed to favor the billionaires and corporations. The failure to increase the debt ceiling will force the US to default on its financial obligations, and will, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, trigger an “unprecedented economic and financial storm….and cause irreparable harm to the US economy, the livelihoods of all Americans (in the middle and lower classes) and global financial stability”.
The chief negotiator for the Republican Party, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a tool of the extreme Maga Trumpian tribe, is playing political brinkmanship. They refuse to negotiate on the Draconian conditions already submitted, which favor the super-wealthy at the expense of the poor and the vulnerable.
The Republican strategy is aimed at bringing the economy to its knees, imposing immense hardship to the poorer classes and causing a global recession. As long as they will have Biden to blame for the crises, and so increase their chances of winning the 2024 election, they care zilch about the plight of anyone or anything else. A short-sighted strategy which is doomed to failure.
Biden has been cornered in a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t” situation. He has to get bi-partisan support to raise the debt ceiling by June 1. And he has to do so without any contribution from the super-wealthy and only the rejection or reduction of entitlement programs for the needy, which form the basis of Democratic ideology. A Herculean task, indeed.
Only two other Democrats have so far announced their candidature for the 2024 Democratic nomination.
Robert F. Kennedy. Jnr. (69 years)
By far the more interesting of the two Democrats who have already announced their candidatures is Robert F. Kennedy, Jnr., son of Attorney General Bobby Kennedy and nephew of JFK. Junior is an environmental lawyer noted for championing environmental issues. But of late, he has antagonized both his family and many Democrats by espousing conspiracy theories about vaccines, which have been embraced by extreme right Trump supporters like convicted felons, Steve Bannon and Alex Jones.
Marianne Williamson (70 years)
Ms. Williamson, a long time social-activist, “self-help guru” and best-selling author, participated at two Democratic primaries in 2020, where she declared that the only way to defeat Trump was to “harness love for political purposes”. Her 2024 platform backs government-run healthcare, free childcare, at least $1 trillion in slavery reparations to black Americans and a federal agency named the Department of Peace. Her approval ratings are in the low single digits, but she has gained the attention of millions of young voters with her Tik Tok content. Perfect presidential material, perhaps 30 years ahead of her time.
There are many eminently qualified and competent Democrats who may decide announce their candidature in due time.
Vice President Kamala Harris (58 years)
As second-in-command, Harris would be a natural candidate in 2024, only if Biden retires; it is unlikely that she will challenge her current boss if he runs. Her performance in her role as Vice President has been held to a more intense scrutiny as President Biden’s potential successor, whether imminently, in 2024 or 2028. Her identity as the first woman of both black and South Asian descent has also led to an unprecedented focus on her eligibility for the presidency by racist elements.
The Vice President’s role is necessarily underplayed and understated, but her performance so far makes her a viable candidate to succeed Biden, as does her lifetime of public service as District Attorney of San Francisco, California’s Attorney General and United States Senator.
Gavin Newsom (55 years)
Newsom, Governor of California, is one of the more credible alternatives to Joe Biden, whether he retires or not.Newsom has repeatedly said that he does not intend to run for the presidency in 2024. He is halfway through his term as Governor of California, which he would have to abandon with a job largely unfinished. However, he has been on the offense against the Republicans in recent times, and it is unlikely that he would be able to resist the lure of a run for the presidency.
Gretchen Whitmer (51 years)
Michigan Governor, Whitmer has said that she wouldn’t run even if Biden retires, but there will be plenty of voter pressure on her to run, after winning two elections in a swing state by over 10 points, and taking over both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in 40 years. In addition to her popularity with voters, she passed legislation which enshrined reproductive rights in Michigan’s Constitution before Roe v. Wade was overturned. Legislation applauded by not only voters in Michigan, but nationwide.
Pete Buttigieg (41 years)
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ran for the presidency in 2020, even leading in early primaries. In a recent New Hampshire poll, he is the top choice of Democratic voters for the upcoming primaries in the Granite State, the first of such Democratic primaries in the 2024 election season cycle. However, he has faced criticism about his handling of crisis upon crisis on air travel during the holiday season in 2022. His handling of the train disaster in East Palestine, Ohio in February, when 38 railcars, 20 carrying hazardous materials, derailed, contaminating the air which necessitated the evacuation of residents within a one-mile radius, has also come under intense criticism.
Staunch conservative Liz Cheney was a leading member of the Republican Party until she was fired for her defiance of Trump after the Trump-incited January 6 insurrection. She has earned lavish praise from the Democrats for her stance against Trump, and has stated that she will campaign with the Democrats in the 2024 elections.
There are many extremely qualified candidates who may come into prominence before November 2024; political satirist, Jon Stewart ((60), Senators Amy Klobuchar (65), Elizabeth Warren (73), even old Bernie Sanders (81), to name a few. My favorite longshot for 2024 and beyond is New York Congressman, Daniel Goldman (47), who served as lead counsel in both impeachment trials against Donald Trump. A brilliant prosecutor, he has recently broken into media prominence with his relentless questioning of radical Republicans on various MAGA conspiracy lies in the House, with devastating success.
Michelle Obama? Well-nigh impossible she will run, but we can dream.
And my ever-optimistic opinion, that New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez should be anyone’s pick for Vice President, if she’s considered too young for the presidency (she will be 35 in October 2024). AOC, as she is popularly known, represents our future and the “Woke” progressive direction towards which the country is headed. With Senator Bernie Sanders, AOC has been leading the movement of the richest nation in the world playing catch up with the compassionate economic and societal policies of all other advanced nations.
The Republican Party will also wake up to this fact when they realize that they haven’t won an election since 2016. They have run out options, especially if their beloved leader has been forcibly “retired”.
My predictions for the candidates for the US presidency are based on today’s conditions. These probably will be totally outdated by November 2024. A host of variables can – and will – change in 15 months. This crucial election may be ultimately contested and decided by presidential protagonists who are not even in the political limelight today.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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